Horse Racing Winners

Archive for the ‘Horse Racing’ Category

Since the favorite is the horse with the most money wagered on it in a horse race, a lot of the focus of the bettors is in either winning with the favorite or betting against it and winning. If you are handicapping horse races and wagering then your focus should be to make a profit. The joy of gambling and watching beautiful runners as well as the drama and spectacle is all part of the game, but when the cheering is over and the moans of despair have faded away, having more jingle in your pocket will enable you to keep playing.

As you evaluate each runner in the race, your goal is probably to estimate each one’s chances of winning and converting it into a number that you can then work with to compare to a payoff. For instance, if Horse A is going to win about 20% of the time, it must be going off at 4-1 in order for a win bet on Horse A to be a break even proposition. If the favorite is at 2-1 and will pay $6 for every two dollar win bet, then it must be able to win at lest a third of the time in your calculations.

Another way to look at it is simple percentages using the totals in the win pool. If the chalk has 40% of the win pool bet on it and in your estimation only has a 30% chance of winning, that means that another horse must be under valued by the crowd. That is a false favorite and creates a nice betting opportunity for you, if you can spot the horse that is better than it appears.

How you arrive at the actual probability of the people’s choice winning the race should be based on multiple handicapping factors such as speed, class, pace, connections, post position, and form. These factors are all part of the mix and many handicappers are good at analyzing them but leave out one important step. They fail to acquaint themselves with the actual statistics for races of the same class, distance, surface, gender. In other words, there is a race model that shows how often favorites win and what running style, post position, etc., wins most often.

If you find a horse that has an edge in several critical categories such as speed and pace, you may rate its chances very high, but what if the race favors closers and this is a front runner who must be out front all the way? Its running style may seriously compromise its chances of winning and yet, the crowd may make it the favorite. Even though your handicapping has shown it to have an edge, using your knowledge of what it takes to win in that particular spot, you should spot this one as a false favorite and look for a horse that may win from off the pace.

It isn’t enough to know who has the edge in certain categories, it is also important to compare that favorite to the race model and statistics for winners under the same conditions. Horses who are running against the grain are often a gold mine for handicappers who will take a chance on another horse better suited to the race and they are one of the best false favorites to bet against.

Weight is assigned to horses in each race in order to handicap each one according to its age and performance, or so the theory goes. There are many people who wonder if a few pounds one way or the other really matters to a thousand pound thoroughbred. Of course it matters, but the question is, how much will it affect the runner’s speed and finish?

Let’s look at a hypothetical situation of a one mile race for three year old fillies. One filly who fits the conditions of the race to a tee has the lowest assigned weight of 118 pounds. The rest of the field are carrying 122 pounds. In hr last race the low weight filly faced many of these same races and they were all carrying the same weight. She lost by 4 lengths. Does she have a chance in today’s race?

The answer is yes, of course, because each pound will equal at least a length at the finish of the race according to most students of weight and handicapping. Therefore, you decide the odds and her chances compute to a win bet and you prepare to make a wager. However, on the screen, just before the post parade, you see the information on overweights and sure enough, the jockey is 2 pounds overweight so she is now carrying 120 pounds.

To make matters worse, there is another horse in the field who is being ridden by an apprentice who gets a 7 pound allowance so that horse is now only carrying 115 pounds. The plot, as they say, thickens. In order to determine what impact these new weights will have on the final result of the race, it is necessary to factor in the weights and deduct or add lengths accordingly. There are several questions that the astute handicapper must now ask him or herself.

The first question is how much did the horse that now has the apprentice advantage lose by in its last race? The next step is to deduct the 7 pounds from your projected finish for that runner and to see if it makes that one competitive.

The next question, and this one trumps all others, is just how much will each runner advance or regress from its last performance based on form and equipment changes? Weight calculations and adjustments to final times and beaten lengths must always be made with the form cycle in mind. The horse may be getting stale or it may be rounding into good form. The addition of blinkers may help it to stay focused on racing or a tongue tie may keep it from choking down in the late stages of the race.

It isn’t enough to look at speed and pace figures to determine who will win the race, it is also necessary to factor in weight, and I mean the real weight after all race day changes are noted, equipment changes, and form. The extra two pounds that the fat jockey brings to the race will have an impact, but will it be enough to change the final result? That question may be answered by deducting lengths and using a simple rule of one length per pound means the horse will lose two lengths to the competition.

Weight is owned by horses in each race in order to handicap each one of these according to wear and tear and performance, approximately the idea goes. There are lots of individuals who wonder if a few pounds one way or the other really matters to a thousand pound thoroughbred. Of course it matters, but the real question is, just how much does it modify the runner’s speed and finished?

Let’s consider a hypothetical situation of the one mile race for 3 years old fillies. One filly who fits the circumstances from the race to some tee has the lowest assigned weight of 118 pounds. All of those other field are carrying 122 pounds. In hr last race the reduced weight filly faced a number of these same races and they counseled me carrying exactly the same weight. She lost by 4 lengths. Does she are able in the current race?

The answer is yes, obviously, because each pound will equal a minimum of a length in the finish from the race based on most students of weight and handicapping. Therefore, you choose the chances and her chances compute to some win bet and you prepare to create a wager. However, on screen, right before the post parade, you see the data on overweights and sure enough, the jockey is 2 pounds overweight so she is now carrying 120 pounds.

In addition, there’s another horse within the field who is being ridden by a student who receives a 7 pound allowance so that horse has become only carrying 115 pounds. The plot, as they say, thickens. In order to figure out what impact these new weights may have on the final result of the race, it’s important to element in the weights and deduct or add lengths accordingly. There are several questions that the astute handicapper must now ask him or herself.

The initial question is how much did the horse that presently has the apprentice advantage lose by in the last race? The next step is to deduct the 7 pounds from your projected finish for that runner and also to find out if it can make that one competitive.

The next question, and this one trumps all others, is just how much will each runner advance or regress from the last performance according to form and equipment changes? Weight calculations and alterations in final times and beaten lengths should always be made with the form cycle in mind. The horse might be getting stale or it may be rounding into good form. Adding blinkers may help it to remain centered on racing or perhaps a tongue tie may keep it from choking down in the late stages of the race.

It isn’t enough to look at speed and pace figures to determine who’ll win the race, it’s also necessary to factor in weight, and I mean the real weight in the end race day changes are noted, equipment changes, and form. The additional two pounds the fat jockey brings to the race may have an impact, but will it’s enough to alter the ultimate result? That question may be answered by deducting lengths and using an easy rule of 1 length per pound means the horse will forfeit two lengths to the competition.