Horse Racing Winners

Archive for the ‘Horse Racing’ Category

If you’ve been going to the race track for a while you’ve probably looked at a lot of horses. But do you know how to look at a horse as a bettor and how to tell if the horse is ready to run a big race? If you do know how to sight handicap, as it is called, do you use it correctly? Here are a few horse racing tips to help you to pick more winners.

First of all, there are several good videos available to help you to learn what to look for when you visually evaluate a runner before a race. You can tell a lot about a person by his or her expression and body language. The same is true of animals, such as horses. Their body language will give you clues about their health eagerness to race.

While it is true that you can sometimes find a runner who looks great and is showing lots of enthusiasm who will go out and win, it is also true that you can find horses at 40-1 who look fantastic and run at the back of the pack. Be very careful not to be fooled by these so-called show horses. They are just that, show horses, who fail to deliver when asked.

One of the best ways to use sight handicapping is simply as a means to verify that your choice is ready to run up to the standards of its last race or what you think it will do today. For instance, let’s say your handicapping has shown that the 3 is the best horse in the race, the most likely winner. A check of the odds board shows that it is within the fair value odds you set for the horse.

The next step should be to go to the paddock and look at your horse as well as the others in the race. Is your horse exhibiting any bad signs such as excessive sweating? Is it tucked up or well fed? Is it limping or carrying itself in a way to indicate any lameness?

Finally, is it on its toes and showing signs of eagerness and alertness?

There are other sight handicapping considerations, but these few will give you an idea of how to use it to give a final check of your chosen horse. This is probably the best use of visual handicapping. The past performances indicate that the runner has shown the ability and its current demeanor and appearance verify that it is still likely to have that form.

Have you ever thought of what it means when a trainer scratches a horse from a race? What does it mean when a veterinarian scratches a horse from a race? Do you even know if the horse you are betting on today was recently scratched from a race, and if it was scratched, why?

That may be some of the most important handicapping information that you will find and yet, many people totally disregard it and don’t check the scratch list. Fortunately, many past performances now provide a list of recently scratched horses. It tells you which of the horses on today’s program were scratched from their last race(s).

A veterinarian scratch is serious because it means a physical problem such as sickness or lameness. Both problems are bad news and may signal that there is a problem that may or may not have been resolved. If the horse you’re considering for a bet was too lame or sick to run in its last race, how do you know it is completely recovered and fit today? Even if the vet okays it, does it mean that it is now 100% ready to race?

The vet may give the horse a clean bill of health but that doesn’t mean the sickness or physical problem didn’t take its toll and leave the runner weakened or sour on racing. Therefore, I always caution handicappers to make sure they look a horse over thoroughly before betting on it if it was scratched in the last 30 days. Make sure you are getting a good price, too.

A trainer scratch may also signal a physical problem, but that’s just one of several considerations. Sometimes trainer will enter a horse in multiple races and then wait to see what the field looks like for each race. There may be a few horses that are just too tough in that class so he or she will look over the other entries and scratch out of the race if the tough competitors are also entered in the same event.

On the other hand, a trainer may also take a runner out of a race because the owner has several other horses running on another day and he wants that owner to be able to see all his horses run on the same day. I know that sounds a bit slim, but that really does sometimes happen and is just one of many reasons that conditioners will drop their horse out of a race. If you don’t know why a horse was scratched, be very careful when wagering on or against it.

Many people are aware of the factors used to handicap a horse race, but how many know just how important each factor may be? Do you know if class or speed is more important in that turf race you are now handicapping? Is early speed the most important consideration in that dirt sprint? Knowing how the factors relate to each other will help you to pick more winners.

Some people call it weighing the factors. The most important aspect of the race gets the most weight. If may be expressed as a percentage or as a simple number such as Speed +1.43. Obviously, even though class, speed, or other considerations may seem to matter more, we can’t disregard the other things that make handicapping the challenge that it is.

A lot of times, the way to determine which one of the many statistics and bits of data you are analyzing is the strongest is to look for the differences between the runners. For instance, if you have a maiden claiming race where the top three contenders have the following average speed figures, A=78, B=77, and C=75, you have three horses who are closely matched for speed.

If your research has shown that speed is usually the most important factor in handicapping maidens, then you might assume that A has a slight advantage over B who has a bigger advantage over C. But there is more to it than that, because B is dropping out of the Maiden Special Weight ranks into a mid-class maiden claimer. That gives B a big class advantage. In this case, though speed is usually the first consideration, the class drop is now determines who your top pick will be.

Comparing one number to another and looking at it as a fraction or ratio is one way to see just how big the difference, or advantage may be. For speed we have 78/77 but for class, using the purse, we have $45,000/28,000. Now the difference becomes quite clear. While we still have to consider other handicapping tools, ratios will help you to make the many comparisons that make horse racing handicapping so challenging and potentially profitable.

There are several ways to use this information. First of all, you can determine what the most important factor is in any class of race just by looking at the winners of past races and comparing their speed, class, pace, and connections to the other horses who ran against them. Secondly, you can create a fraction or ratio for comparing the attributes of the horses in a given race.